• Bambang Indra Ismaya Ecomomic Analyst at Bank Indonesia
  • Donni Fajar Anugrah Bank Indonesia
Keywords: Inflation’s determinants;, Expectations, Indonesia, GMM


In this paper, we investigate the determinants of food inflation in Indonesia by applying General Method of Moments (GMM). The period of quarterly data is 2008:Q1 to 2017:Q4. The empirical finding of this study shows that backward-looking and forward-looking expectations have a strong impact on food inflation. Also, this study provided evidences that the determinants general food price inflation, such as food production, agriculture sector output, infrastructure, food import, agriculture sector credit, demand level (M1/consumption), and seasonal event (Eid Mubarak) are highly significant. Backward-looking and forward-looking expectations, domestic oil price, and level of demand have been a contributor toward high food price while the factors of general food price inflation reduce food price.

In particular, we also identify the determinants of rice price inflation since it has the largest share in food price inflation. We found that backward-looking and forward-looking expectations, climate change, and demand have a strong impact on high rice price while production, productivity, harvested area, infrastructure, import, and credit reduce rice price.


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