THE IMPACT OF ACFTA IMPLEMENTATION ON INTERNATIONAL TRADE OF INDONESIA
This study analyze the impact of the implementation of trade agreements within the framework of ACFTA on Indonesia»s export by using the GTAP model; a Multi Regional Computable General Equilibrium Model. Results shows that ACFTA provide opportunities for increased export from Indonesia; Indonesia obtained a net trade creation of international trade amounted to 2% and total exports growth increased by 1.8. However, the export performance of Indonesia in the period showed a decrease of competitiveness, as shown by the decline in share of Indonesian export commodities which are highly competitive and high intra-industry linkage. This paper also find that because the commodity structure of China and the non compeeting behavior of ASEAN countries including Indonesia (tends to complement), China is relatively easier to penetrate export to the ASEAN market. The entering products from China should provide opportunities for domestic producers to increase production capacity in ASEAN, due to wider choice of relatively cheap capital goods imports.
Endy Tjahjono, M. Barik Bathaluddin, dan Justina Adamanti (2009): “Semar 2009: Suatu Model Financial Computable General Equilibrium”. WP/ / 2009 (Desember 2009).
Frankel, Jeffrey (1997): “Regional Trading Blocs in The World Economic System,” NBER Working Paper Series 4050.
Haryadi, Rina Oktaviani, Mangara Tambunan dan Noer Azam Achsani. “Dampak Penghapusan Hambatan Perdagangan Sektor Pertanian Terhadap Kinerja Ekonomi Negara Maju dan Berkembang”. April 2008.
IMF (2007): World Economic Financial Surveys: Regional Economic Outlook Asia and Pacific. Oct 2007.
Joseph F. Francois, Luis Rivera dan Hugo Rojas-Romagosa. “Economic perspectives for Central America after CAFTA. A GTAP-based analysis”, February 2008.
Kemp, Murray C., and Henry Y.Jr.Wan. (1976). “An Elementary Proposition Concerning the Formation of Customs Unions.” Journal of International Economics 6 (1976): 95-97.
Kemp, Murray, C. (1964): The Pure Theory of International Trade. Prentice-Hall, Englewood Cliffs, N.J., 176-177.
Krueger, Anne O (1999). “Trade creation and Trade Diversion under NAFTA”. National Bureau of Economic Research, WP 7429.
Ohyama, M. (1972). “Trade and Welfare in General Equilibrium”. Keio Economic Studies 9, 37-73.
Okamoto, Yumiko (2005). “ASEAN, China, and India: Are they more competitive or complementary to each other?”.
Saktyanu K. Dermoredjo, Wahida, dan Budiman Hutabarat; Analisis Dampak Penurunan Subsidi Ekspor Negara Maju terhadap Produksi Pertanian Indonesia. Desember 2007.
Sanchez, Manuel dan Karp, Nathaniel (2000). “NAFTA’s Economic Effects on Mexico”. NBER.
Shujiro Urata dan Kozo Kiyota; The impacts of an East Asia FTA on Foreign Trade in East Asia. Desember 2003.
Thomas W. Hertel, Global Trade Analysis, Modeling dan Applications, Cambridge University Press 1997
Tsutsumi, Masahiko (2001): “How Will the Regional FTAs Shape the Indonesian Economy? Evaluation by the Computable General Equilibrium Model”. TSQ Discussion Paper 2001/02-No. 2. (August 2001).
Tubagus Feridhanusetyawan, Yose Rizal Damuri; Economic Crisis and Trade Liberalization: A CGE Analysis On The Forestry Sector. February 2004.
Vanek, Jaroslav (1965). General Equilibrium of International Discrimination: The Case of Customs Unions. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.
Viner, Jacob (1950). The Customs Union Issue, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, New York.
Buletin Ekonomi Moneter dan Perbankan / Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.