CO-MOVEMENT 4 PERIOD ASEAN CURRENCY 1997-2005 A THEORY APPLICATION NAMELY OPTIMAL CURRENCY AREA USING VECTOR ERROR CORRECTION MODEL

  • Moch. Doddy Ariefianto
  • Perry Warjiyo

Abstract

Starting from the Optimum Currency Area (OCA), this paper utilize the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) to identify the dynamic short term and the long term co-movement between the ASEAN 4 currencies, including their existing fundamental mechanism. There are at least 3 important findings, (i) the co-movement between the ASEAN 4 currencies is not proved empirically, (ii) the theory of OCA does not robust in explaining the co-movement pattern in ASEAN, and (iii) the existance of OCA is a global phenomena, indicated from the significance of Yen currency on the ASEAN 4. These findings led to a conclusion of this paper that the ongoing economic integration as well as the financial one in ASEAN are not enough to form a unified monetary arrangement nor a common currency in this region.

JEL Classification : F02, F36, F33, C32

Keywords : Co-Movement, Optimum Currency Area, Vector Error Correction Model.

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Published
2010-11-19
How to Cite
Ariefianto, M. D., & Warjiyo, P. (2010). CO-MOVEMENT 4 PERIOD ASEAN CURRENCY 1997-2005 A THEORY APPLICATION NAMELY OPTIMAL CURRENCY AREA USING VECTOR ERROR CORRECTION MODEL. Buletin Ekonomi Moneter Dan Perbankan, 12(4), 447-480. https://doi.org/10.21098/bemp.v12i4.380
Section
Articles

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