ANALISIS FAKTOR-FAKTOR YANG MEMPENGARUHI “CAPITAL FLIGHT” DI INDONESIA (Period Kuartal I 1990 s.d. Kuartal IV 2000)

  • Navik Istikomah

Abstract

The purpose of this research is to identify the problems of the effect of economic variables, that is,  changes of exchange rates Rp/US$, external debt, economic growth, inflation, differences of interest rate of Indonesian- America, Foreign Direct Investment, political stability condition, on capital flight in Indonesia, for period 1st quarter, 1990 – 4th quarter, 2000. The determinants of capital flight in Indonesia use cointegration equation model of Likelihood Johansen’s. The estimation completed by time series data validity, that is, unit-roots-test and co-integration-test.

The result of research indicate that independent variable on model, that is, changes of exchange rates Rp/US$, external debt, economic growth, inflation, differences of interest rate of Indonesian-America, Foreign Direct Investment, and political stability condition, on the long run could explain changes of capital flight about 58,85 percent and altogether significant (computed-F = 7,1520 > value-F = 3,192). Partially, knowed that all variable on model, exceptly inflation and differences of interest rate of Indonesia-America, to have significant influence on capital flight in Indonesia. All variable sufficient stationery-condition at first different and the model could cointegrated at first different.

Keywords: Capital Flight and determinant factors, and Cointegration of Johansen’s Likelihood

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Published
2004-12-15
Section
Articles