DINAMIKA INDUSTRI MANUFAKTUR DAN RESPON TERHADAP SIKLUS BISNIS
The role of the manufacturing industry in the economy has expanded significantly from 19 percent in 1990 to 26 percent in 2009, while its labor absorption only increased from 10 percent to 12.2 percent. The cycle of the manufacturing industry has been in line with the economic growth. This study explores the implications of the firm-level heterogeneity over the business cycle. By using the panel multinomial logit, it shows that firms with less capital and small size have greater probability to exit the industry during the boom/ bust period. Sensitivity of the company to changes in capital is greater during the boom period. Only highly productive firms enter and begin production during recessions. Companies with higher productivity rate also have greater probability to enter the market. In contrast, higher production cost and higher market concentration increase the probability for smaller companies to exit from the industry.
JEL Classification: : D24, L6, E32
Keywords: Production, Cost, Capital and Total Factor Productivity, Industry Studies Manufacturing, Business Fluctuations/cycles
Austin, John S dan David I. Rosenbaum. “The Determinants of Entry and Exit Rates Into US Manufacturing Industries”, Review of Industrial Organization, Vol.5 No. 2.
Bernard, Andrew B. and J.B. Jensen. (2004). “Why Some Firms Export,” The Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 86, No. 2.
Caballero, R. J. dan M. L. Hammour, (1994). “The Cleansing Effect of Recessions,” American Economic Review, No.84, 1350-1368.
Caballero, R. J. dan M. L. Hammour, (2005). “The Cost of Recessions Revisited: A ReverseLiquidationist View,” American Economic Review, No.84, 1350-1368.
Davis, S.J. dan J.C. Haltawanger, (1990). “Gross Job Creation and Destruction: Microeconomic Evidence and Macroeconomic Implications,” NBER Macroeconomic AnnualV, 123-168.
Holzl Werner dan Leopold Sogner, (2004). “Entry and Exit Dynamics in The Austrian Manufacturing Industries.” Vienna University of Economics and Business Administration, Working Paper No. 36.
Ilmakunnas, Pekka dan Jukka Topi (1999). “Microeconomic and Macroeconomic Influences on Entry and Exit of Firms.” Review of Industrial OrganizationNo. 15, 283-301.
Lee, Y. and T. Mukoyama, (2008). “Entry, Exit and Plant-Level Dynamics over the Business Cycle,” Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Working Paper07-18R.
Martin-Marcos, Ana dan Jordi Jaumandreu, (2004). “Entry, Exit, and Productivity Growth: Spanish Manufacturing during The Eighties.” Spanish Economic ReviewNo. 6, 211-226.
McQueen, Grant and Thorley, Steven, (1993). “Asymmetric business cycle turning points.” Journal of Monetary Economics, 31, 341-362.
Yang, Qing Gong, (2004). “Entry, Exit and The Dynamics of Productivity Growth in Chinese Manufacturing Industry”, ESRC Centre for Business Research, University of Cambridge, Working Paper No. 284.
Buletin Ekonomi Moneter dan Perbankan / Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.