DAMPAK PELAKSANAAN ACFTA TERHADAP PERDAGANGAN INTERNASIONAL INDONESIA

  • Ibrahim Ibrahim
  • Meily Ika Permata
  • Wahyu Ari Wibowo

Abstract

This study analyze the impact of the implementation of trade agreements within the framework of ACFTA on Indonesia»s export by using the GTAP model; a Multi Regional Computable General Equilibrium Model. Results shows that ACFTA provide opportunities for increased export from Indonesia; Indonesia obtained a net trade creation of international trade amounted to 2% and total exports growth increased by 1.8. However, the export performance of Indonesia in the period showed a decrease of competitiveness, as shown by the decline in share of Indonesian export commodities which are highly competitive and high intra-industry linkage. This paper also find that because the commodity structure of China and the non compeeting behavior of ASEAN countries including Indonesia (tends to complement), China is relatively easier to penetrate export to the ASEAN market. The entering products from China should provide opportunities for domestic producers to increase production capacity in ASEAN, due to wider choice of relatively cheap capital goods imports.

JEL Classification: C67, F14, R12

Keywords: ACFTA, trade, export, GTAP, Revealed Comparative Advantage, CGE.

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Published
2010-11-22
Section
Articles

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