ANALISIS PENGARUH HARGA CRUDE PALM OIL (CPO) DUNIA TERHADAP NILAI TUKAR RIIL RUPIAH

  • Hilda Aprina Badan Pusat Statistik

Abstract

Indonesia is a biggest producer of Crude Palm Oil (CPO) in the world. Production and export volumes continued to increase from year to year. CPO products have an important role in the Indonesian economy, one of them as the country’s largest foreign exchange earner in the plantation sector. Given that Indonesia has adopted a floating exchange rate regime since 1978, the export of commodities such as palm oil will have an important influence on the real exchange rate. Therefore, this study aimed to see how much the world price of CPO influence the development of the real exchange rate of rupiah. The analytical method used is a simultaneous equation model using time series data from 1984 to 2011. The results showed that the increase in CPO price will lead to real exchange rate rupiah appreciated. Therefore, Indonesia as a major producer of CPO should be able to control the world price of crude palm oil in order to control the stability of the real exchange rate of the rupiah. 

Keywords : world CPO price, simultaneous equation model, the real exchange rate of rupiah.

JEL Classification: E2

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

References

Andrian, Nanang. 2011. Defisit Anggaran, Pertumbuhan Uang dan Inflasi di Indonesia [Skripsi]. Bogor :Institut Pertanian Bogor.

Boediono. 1993. Ekonomi Makro.Edisi ke-4. Yogyakarta : BPFE UGM.

BPS. 2008. Kajian Komoditas Unggulan. Jakarta: BPS.

BPS. 2013. Produk Domestik Bruto Atas Dasar Harga Berlaku Menurut Lapangan Usaha (Miliar Rupiah), 2004-2012. http://www.bps.go.id/tab_sub/view.php?kat=2&tabel=1&daftar=1&id_subyek=11¬ab=1. [1 Juli 2013].

B. Imimole, A. Enoma. 2011. Exchange Rate Depreciation And Inflation In Nigeria. Nigeria: Ambrose Alli University.

Cashin, Paul, Luis F. Cespedes and Ratna Sahay (2004. Commodity Currencies and the Real Exchange Rate. Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, 75(1.

Chen, Yu-chin and Kenneth Rogoff. 2003. Commodity Currencies. Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, 60(1).

Direktorat Jederal Perkebunan. 2008. Lintasan Tiga Puluh Tahun Pengembangan Kelapa Sawit. http://ditjenbun.deptan.go.id/budtanan/images/bagian %20ii.pdf. [9 Juli 2013].

Dornbush, Fischer &Startz, Richard. 2001. Makroekonomi. 8th Edition. Jakarta : PT. Media Global Edukasi.

Edward, Sebastian. 1987. Commodity Export Price and the Real Exchange Rate in Development Country : Coffee in Columbia. Economic Adjustment and Exchange Rates in Developing Countries.12 Februari 2013. http://www.nber.org/books/edwa86-1.

E. Oriavwote, Victor and J. Eshanake, Samuel. 2012. Real Exchange Rate and Inflation: An Empirical Assessment of the Nigerian Experience. Mediterranean Journal of Social Sciences, 3(3. [2 Mei 2013].

Frankel, Jeffrey (2007. On The Rand: Determinants Of The South African Exchange Rate. South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, 75, 3.

Gujarati, Damodar. 2004. Basic Econometrics. 4th Edition. New York: The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc.

Khodeir, Aliaa Nabil. 2012. Towards Inflation Targeting in Egypt: The relationship between Exchange Rate and Inflation. Egypt: Helwan University.

Lipsey, R. G., et al. 1995. Pengantar Makroekonomi. Edisi ke-10. Jilid 1. Wasana, Kirbrandoko, dan Budijanto [editor]. Jakarta : Bina Rupa Aksara.

Mankiw, N. Gregory. 2007. Teori Makro Ekonomi Terjemahan: Edisi Keenam. Jakarta : PT. Gelora Aksara Pertama.

Maryatmo, R. 2004. Dampak Moneter Kebijakan Defisit Angaran Pemerintah dan Anggaran Pemerintah dan Peranan Asa Nalar dalam Simulasi Model Makro-Ekonomi Indonesia (1983:1-2002:4. Buletin Ekonomi Moneter dan Perbankan. 12 Juni 2013 www.bi.go.id/NR/rdonlyres/2C2A167B-6E1.../fdampakmon1.pdf.

Maulida, Yusni, Merdiana dan Mayes, Anthonio. 2010. Pengaruh Defisit Anggaran, Jumlah Uang Beredar dan Independensi Bank Indonesia terhadap Inflasi. Pekanbaru : Universitas Riau.

Muqrobi, Syaiful dan Pujiati, Amin. 2011. Inflasi dan Pertumbuhan Ekonomi :Uji Kausalitas. Jurnal Dinamika Keuangan dan Perbankan, 3(1.

Ngandu, S. 2005. Mineral Prices and the Exchange Rate: what does the Literature say. HSRC: Mimeo.

Oladipo, S. O. and Akinbobola, J. O. 2011. Budget Deficit and Inflation in Nigeria: A Causal Relationship. Journal of Emerging Trends in Economics and Management Sciences (JETEMS).

Prayitno, Lily et al. Maret 2002. Fakto-Faktor Yang Berpengaruh Terhadap Jumlah Uang Beredar di Indonesia Sebelum dan Sesudah Krisis: Sebuah Analisis Ekonometrika. Jurnal Manajemen dan Kewirausahaan, 4(1).

Ramli, Rumana. 2012. Inflation, Money Supply And Economic Growth: A Causality Analysis For Malaysia. Malaysia: Department of Statistics.

Samuelson, Paul. A. dan Nordhaus, William D. 2004. Makroekonomi Edisi ke 17. Jakarta : Erlangga.

Sitepu, Rasidin Karo-karo dan Bonar M. Sinaga. 2006. Aplikasi Model Ekonometrika: Estimasi, Simulasi, dan Peramalan Menggunakan Program SAS. Program Studi Ilmu Ekonomi Pertanian. Sekolah Pasca sarjana. Bogor : Institut Pertanian Bogor.

Umaru, Aminu and Zubairu, Anono Abdulrrahman. 2012. Effect of Inflation on the Growth and Development of the Nigerian Economy (An Empirical Analysis. International Journal of Business and Social Science, 3(10).

UNCTAD. 2013. Free Market Commodity Price, Annual. http://unctadstat.unctad.org/ReportFolders/reportFolders.aspx. [3 Juni 2013].

Zuhroh, Idah dan Kaluge, David. 2007. Dampak Pertumbuhan nilai Tukar Riil terhadap Pertumbuhan Neraca Perdagangan Indonesia. Jurnal of Applied Indonesia Aconomic, 191;(1).
Published
2014-10-27
How to Cite
Aprina, H. (2014). ANALISIS PENGARUH HARGA CRUDE PALM OIL (CPO) DUNIA TERHADAP NILAI TUKAR RIIL RUPIAH. Buletin Ekonomi Moneter Dan Perbankan, 16(4), 315-338. https://doi.org/10.21098/bemp.v16i4.15
Section
Articles