EARLY WARNING INDICATORS AND OPTIMAL POLICIES FOR MITIGATING ECONOMIC CRISES: EVIDENCE FROM META-ANALYSIS

  • Arlyana Abubakar Bank indonesia
  • G.A. Diah Utari Bank Indonesia
  • Prayudhi Azwar Bank Indonesia
Keywords: Economic crisis, Early warning indicators, Crisis management

Abstract

This study examines the early warning indicators of crises and the optimal policies for mitigating economic crises. Based on meta-analysis of 72 studies, we find that the exchange rate is the most used indicator in detecting crises, and the optimal policies for mitigating crises are monetary and fiscal policies. We further find that besides the exchange rate, the interest rate is a dominant indicator of crises in developed countries.Moreover, the foreign exchange, international reserves and current account are the dominant indicators in developing countries. The evidence for developing countries aligns with the finding that policies addressing external sector performance are preferable to mitigate crises in these countries.

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Published
2020-09-10
How to Cite
Abubakar, A., Utari, G., & Azwar, P. (2020). EARLY WARNING INDICATORS AND OPTIMAL POLICIES FOR MITIGATING ECONOMIC CRISES: EVIDENCE FROM META-ANALYSIS. Buletin Ekonomi Moneter Dan Perbankan, 23(2), 269 - 294. https://doi.org/10.21098/bemp.v23i1.1421
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Articles