HOW LONG DO HOUSING CYCLES LAST? A DURATION ANALYSIS FOR EMERGING ECONOMIES

  • Maryam Akbari Nasiri Victoria Department of Treasury and Finance
Keywords: Housing cycles, Duration, Amplitude, Economic growth

Abstract

In this paper, I empirically study the amplitudes and durations of housing cycles in selected emerging countries. Using the Harding and Pagan (2002) approach, I identify peaks and troughs of house prices for 10 countries. I find that, on average, housing expansions last longer and have greater amplitudes than housing contractions. I, then, estimate a discrete time survival model of housing expansions and contractions. I show that both contractions and expansions have positive duration dependence. I find that inflation and economic growth are useful predictors for the end of periods of expansions and contractions.

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Published
2020-06-30
How to Cite
Nasiri, M. (2020). HOW LONG DO HOUSING CYCLES LAST? A DURATION ANALYSIS FOR EMERGING ECONOMIES. Buletin Ekonomi Moneter Dan Perbankan, 23(2), 179 - 200. https://doi.org/10.21098/bemp.v23i2.1295
Section
Articles