• Andi Irawan


In a long run perspective, the aim of this research is to analyze the impact of the inflating-policy on the employment growth, and the agriculture investment. From a short run perspective, the aim covers (1) the identification of agriculture price instability on certain economic blocks, (2) the analysis of inflation behavior in the agriculture sector and its causality both to output price and input prices and the causality within the input prices.

We apply the Vector Error Correction Model, Johansen Cointegration Test, and Granger Causality Test on a monthly series data from 1993:01 to 2002:12. The result shows the production and capital inagriculture sector are responsive to the output price change. This inflating the output price will effectively help to generate the output and a new investment in this sector. However, as the price shock can be a source of instability, the government should be careful to apply this price inflating policy. In addition, to solve the unemployment problem in agriculture sector, the government should apply the cost strategy, such as input price subsidy  policy.

JEL: C32, C52, O13, Q11, Q18

Keyword: Employment, Investasi, Agriculture,Johansen, Cointegration Vector Error Correction Model, Causality Test


Download data is not yet available.


Engle, R.f. and C.W.J. Granger. 1987. Cointegration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation and Testing. Review of Economic and Statistics, 64 (2):231-53.

Herliana, L. 2004. Peranan Pertanian dalam Perekonomian Indonesia: Pendekatan Sistem Neraca Sosial Ekonomi dalam Persepektif Structural Path Analysis. Tesis Magister. Sekolah Pascasarjana, Institut Pertanian Bogor, Bogor.

Hutabarat, B. 2001. Investasi Publik pada Sektor Pertanian di Era Otonomi. Forum Agro Ekonomi (FAE), 19(2):24-37.

Johansen, S. 1988. Statistical Analysis of Cointegrating Vectors. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 12(2): 131-154.

Irawan, A. 2004. Analisis Vector Error Correction Model Perilaku PDB Pertanian Indonesia. Bagian Studi Sektor Riil, Direktorat Riset dan Kebijakan Ekonomi Bank Indonesia, Jakarta.

Simatupang, P dan K. Dermoredjo. 2003. Produksi Domestik Bruto, Harga dan Kemiskinan: Hipotesis Tricle Down Effect dikaji Ulang. Ekonomi dan Keuangan Indonesia (EKI), 51(3):291-324.

Siregar, H. 2002. Empirical Evaluation of Rival Theories of The Business Cycle: Application of Structural VAR Models to New Zealand Economy. Ph.D. Thesis. Lincoln University, Canterbury.

______ and Ward, B. 2002. Were Aggregate Demand Shocks Important in Explaining Indonesian Macro-Economic Fluctuation? Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, 7(1):35-60.

Sugema, I. 1992. The Dynamic of Macroeconomy-Trade-Agriculture Linkages in The Australian Economy: An Application of Error Correction Model to Cointegrated Relation Ship. The University of New England. Thesis S2. Department of Agricultural Economic and Business Management, New England.

________. 2000. Indonesia»s Deep Economic Crisis: The Role of Tha Banking Sector in Its Origins and Propagation. A Thesis submitted for Degree of Doctor of Philosophy of The Australian National University.

Syafa’at, N dan Sudi, M. 2002. Identifikasi Sumber Pertumbuhan Output Nasional: Pendekatan Analisis Input-Output. Forum Agro Ekonomi (FAE), 20(1):1-24.

Thomas, R. L. 1999. Modern Econometric. Department of Economics, Manchester Metropolitan University. Addison-Wesley, England.

Verbeek, M. 2002. A Guide to Modern Econometrics. John Wiley and Sons Ltd, England.
How to Cite
Irawan, A. (2007). ANALISIS PERILAKU INSTABILITAS, PERGERAKAN HARGA, EMPLOYMENT DAN INVESTASI DI DALAM SEKTOR PERTANIAN INDONESIA: Aplikasi Vector Error Correction Model. Buletin Ekonomi Moneter Dan Perbankan, 8(1), 79 -.