DAMPAK MONETER KEBIJAKAN DEFISIT ANGGARAN PEMERINTAH DAN PERANAN ASA NALAR DALAM SIMULASI MODEL MAKRO-EKONOMI INDONESIA (1983:1-2002:4)
Abstract
The purpose of this research is to observe the impact of the budget deficit policy on the macroeconomic variables in general, and specifically on the monetary variables in the short and long run.
We apply macroeconomic model with rational expectation specification to allow agents altering their economic decision in encountering the authority policies. The model constructed contains eight (8) long run behavior equations, eight (8) short run behavior equations, four (4) rational expectation equations, and at least twelve (12) identity equations. The parameters are estimated by using the Two Stage Least Squares (2SLS) method. The endogenous variables which has become the independent variables are replaced by the instrument al variables. The instrumental variables are obtained from the reduced form structural equations.
The statistical test on the impact of budget deficit on monetary variables are conducted by using reduced form equations and causality test. Both of the tests show that budget deficit through the government revenue mechanism affects the interest rate in the short and long run. In the short run through government expenditure mechanism, budget deficit would affect the exchange rate and price level. In the long run, however, causality tests show that the exchange rate and price level would in turn affect the budget deficit.
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References
_______, “Inflationary Finance and the Dynamics of Inflation: Indonesia 1951-72”, American Economic Review, Vol. 67, June, 1977, 390-403.
Agenor, Pierre-Richard, dan Peter J. Montiel, Development Macroeconomics, Princeton University Press, Princeton, New Jersey, 1996.
Aghevli, Bijan B., dan Mohsin S. Khan, “Government Deficits and the Inflationary Process in Developing Countries”, IMF Staff Paper, Vol.25, No.3, September 1978: 383-416.
Adji, Arti, Is Public Debt Neutral? Evidence For Indonesia, Journal Ekonomi dan Bisnis Indonesia(JEBI), September 1995, 21-32.
Barro, Robert J, “The Ricardian Approach to Budget Deficits”, Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol.3, No.2, Spring 1989, 37-54.
Barro, Robert J., “Are Government Bonds Net Wealth?”, Journal of Political Economics, No. 82 November/December 1974, 1095-1117.
Begg, David K.H., “The Rational Expectations Revolution in Macroeconomics, Theories and Evidence”, John Hopkins University Press, Baltimore, Maryland, 1985.
Bernheim, B.Douglas, “A Neoclassical Perspective on Budget Deficits”, Journal of Economics Perspectives, Vol. 3, No. 2, Spring 1989, 55-72.
Binger, Brian R. and Elizabeth Hoffman, Microeconomics with Calculus, Scott, Foresman and Company, United of America, 1988.
Blejer, Mario, I., and Adrienne Cheasty, “The Measurement of Fiscal Deficits: Analytical and Methodological Issues”, Journal of Economic Literature (JEL), Vol. XXIX, December 1991, 1644-1678.
Boediono, Teori Moneter; Seri Sinopsis Pengantar Ilmu Ekonomi No.5, BPFE, Universitas Gadjahmada, Yogyakarta, 1983.
Boskin, J Michael, “What Do We Know About Consumption and Saving, and What are The Implications For Fiscal Policy?”, American Economic Review and Proceedings, Vol.78, No. 2, 1978, 401-407.
Brown, T.M., Specification and Uses of Econometric Models, New York: Macmillan, 1970.
Bryant, John, “ A Simple Rational-Expectations Keynes-Type Model”, in Gregory Mankiw dan David Romer, eds, New Keynesian Economics: Coordination Failures and Real Rigidities, Vol.2, N., The MIT Press, Cambridge, London, 1995.
Cagan, Phillip, “The Monetary Dynamics of Hyperinflation.” In Studies in the Quantity Theory of Money, ed. By Milton Friedman, University of Chicago Press, 1956. Chacholiades, Miltiades, International Economics, McGraw-Hill, New York, 1990.
Chiang, Alpha, C., Fundamental Methods of Mathematical Economics, 3rd Edition, McGraw-Hill Book Company, New York, 1984.
Cooper, Russel and Andrew John, “Coordinating Coordination Failures in Keynesian Models, in New Keynesian Economics: Coordination Failures and Real Rigidities, Vol.2, N. Gregory Mankiw dan David Romer, eds, The MIT Press, Cambridge, London, 1995.
Davidson, J.D., Hendry, F. Srba and S. Yeo, “Econometric Modelling of the Aggregate Time-Series Relationship between Consumers’ Expenditure and Income in the United Kingdom”, Economic Journal, vol. 88, 1978, 661-692.
De Grouwe, Paul, Macroeconomic Theory for The Open Economy, Gower Publishing Company Limited, Hampshire, England, 1983.
De Haan, Jacob, dan Jan Egbert Storm, “ Do Financial Markets and the Maastricht Treaty Discipline Governments? New Evidence”, Applied Financial Economics (APF), ISSN 0960-3107, Vol 10 iss 2 April 2000, 221.
Deaton, A., “Involuntary Saving Through Unanticipated Inflation”, American Economic Review, vol. 67, no. 5, 1977, 900-910.
Dornbusch, Rudiger, Stanley Fischer, Gordon R.Sparks, Macroeconomics, 3rd edd., McGraw-Hill Ryerson Limited, Toronto, 1989.
Dutton, Dean S., “A Model of Self Generating Inflation: The Argentine Case”, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Vol.. 3, Mei 1971, 245-262.
Egwalkhide, Festus, O., “Effect of Budget Deficits on The current Account Balance in Nigeria: A Simulation Exercise”, The African Economic Research Consortion, The Regal Press Kenya, 1997.
Eisner, Robert, “Budget Deficit: Rhetoric and Reality”, Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol. 3, No. 2, Spring 1989, 73-93.
Engle, Robert F. and C.W.J. Granger, “Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing”, Econometrica, Vol.55, No.2, March, 1987, 251-76.
Flavin, M., The Adjustment of Consumption to Changing Expectations about Future Income, Journal of Political Economic, No. 89, 1981, 974-1009.
Friedman, M. and M.S. Khan, A Theory of the Consumption Function, Princeton: Princeton University Press. 1957.
Galardo, J Lopez, “Budget Deficit and Full Employment”, Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Summer 2000, Vol. 22, No. 4, 549-563.
Ghiglino, Christian dan Karl Shell, “The Economic Effects of Restrictions on Government Budget Deficits” Journal of Economic Theory (JET), ISSN 0022-0531, Vol. 94, Iss:1, Sept 2000, 106.
Goweke, Laszlo; “ Labour Taxation, Efficiency Wages and The Long Run”, Bulletin of Economic Research (BOE),ISSN 0307-3378, Vol 52 Iss;4 Oct 2000, 241.
Gramlich, Edward, M., “Budget Deficits and National Saving: Are Politicians Exogenous?”, Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol.3, No.2, Spring 1989, 23-35.
Grossman, Herschel, I., “Rational Expectations, Business Cycles, and Government Behavior”, in Stanley Fischer, eds, Rational Expectations and Economic Policy, The University of Chicago Press, Chicago, 1980, 5-22.
Gujarati, Domodar, N., Basic Econometrics, 3rd edd., McGraw-Hill International Editions, 1995.
Hall, S.G., S.G.B. Henry, Macroeconomic Modelling, Bank of England, London, UK, 1988.
Hayashi, Fumio, “Tests for Liquidity Constraints: a Critical Survey and some New Observation”, in Bewley, Truman F, ed., Advances in Econometrics, Fifth World Congress, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1987.
Holden, K., D.A.Peel, dan J.L.Thompsons, Expectations: Theory and Evidence, St.Matin’s Press, New York, 1985
Howard, Anton, and Chris Rorres, “Elementary Linear Algebra, Applications Version”,8th edd, John Wiley and Sons, Inc., New York, 2000. IBII, Proyeksi Ekonomi Indonesia Tahun 2000; Berdasarkan Perhitungan Macromodel,Lembaga Penelitian Ekonomi Indonesia-IBII, Jakarta, 2000.
Insukindro, “Pembentukan Model Dalam Penelitian Empirik Dengan Pendekatan Koreksi Kesalahan”, Journal Ekonomi dan Bisnis Indonesia (JEBI),Vol. 14 No.1, 1999, 1-8.
Insukindro, Ekonomi Uang dan Bank : Teori dan Pengalaman di Indonesia, BPFE, Jogjakarta, 1993
Insukindro, “Regresi Linier Lancung dalam Analisis Ekonomi: Suatu Tinjauan dengan Satu Studi Kasus di Indonesia”, Journal Ekonomi dan Bisnis Indonesia, 5, 1991, 75-88.
Jehle, Geoffrey, A., Advanced Microeconomic Theory, Prentice-Hall International Inc., Englewood Cliffs, New York, 1991.
Khan, Mohsin, S., “The Variability of Expectation in Hyperinflations” Journal of Political Economy, Vol.85, Agustus 1977, 817-827.
Kotlikoff, Laurence J., “Intergenerational Transfers and Savings”, Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol. 2, Spring 1988, 41-58.
Lucas, R.E., Jr. “Econometric Policy Evaluation: A Critique”, in K. Brunner and A.
Meltzer (eds), The Phillips Curve and Labor Markets, Amsterdam: North Holland, CarnegieRochester Series on Public Policy, 1976.
Mankiw, Gregory N., Macroeconomics, 3rd edition, Worth Publishers, New York, 1992.
Mansur, Ahsan H, “Effect of a Budget Deficit on the Current Account Balance: The Case of the Philippines”, in Blejer, M.I. and K.Chu eds, Fiscal Policy Stabilization and Growth in Developing Countries, Washington , D.C. : International Monetery Fund, 1989.
Maryatmo, Rogatianus, “The Role of Oil in Indonesian Economy: A Case of Causality Test”, Modus, Edisi 06, 1994, 37-44.
McCafferty, Stephen, Macroeconomic Theory, Harper & Row Publishers, New York, 1990.
Pindyck, Robert S., Daniel L. Rubinfeld, Econometric Models and Economic Forecasting, 4rd Edition., McGraw-Hill, New York, 1998
Price, Simon, and Insukindro, “The Demand for Indonesian Narrow Money: Long-run Equilibrium, Error Correction and Forward-Looking Behaviour”, The Journal of International
Trade & Economic Development3 (2) July 1994, 147-163.
Repse, Einors, “Latvia: Focus on Country Development”, Finance & Development (FID), ISSN 0015-1947, Vol. 37 Iss:3, September 2000, 17.
Romer, David, Advanced Macroeconomics, International Edition, 2nd edd., McGrawHill Higher Education, Singapore, 2001.
Saleh, Samsubar, “Pengaruh Kebijakan Defisit Anggaran Pemerintah Terhadap Perekonomian Indonesia”, Disertasi S3, Universitas Gajah Mada Jogjakarta, tidak dipublikasikan, 2002.
Sargent, Thomas J., and Neil Wallace, “Rational Expectation and the Dynamics of Hyperinflation”, International Economic Review, Vol 14, June 1973, 328-350.
Sargent, Thomas, J., Macroeconomics Theory, 2nd Edition., Academic Press, Inc., New York, 1987.
Seater, John J., “Ricardian Equivalence”, Journal of Economic Literature (JEL), Vol XXXI, March, 1993, 142-190.
Snowdown, B., and Vane H.R., A Modern Guide to Macroeconomics; An Introduction to Competing Schools of Thought, Edward Elgar Publishing Limited, Gower House, United Kingdom, 1995.
Thomas, R.L., Modern Econometrics; an Introduction, 1st Edition., Addison Wesley Longman, 1997.
Wiles, Mark, H., “Harapan Rasional Sebagai Kontrarevolusi”, dalam buku Daniel Bell dan Irving Kristol (editor), Krisis Teori Ekonomi, LP3ES, Jakarta, 1987.
Woo, W.T., Glassburner B., and Nasution A., Macroenomomic Policies, Crisis, and Long-Term Growth in Indonesia 1965-90, The World Bank, Washington, DC, 1994.
Woodford, Michael, “Revolution and Evolution in Twentieth-Century Macroeconomics”, Paper Prepared for the Conference on “Frontiers of The Mind in the Twenty-First Century” Library of Congress, Washington, June 14-18, 1999.
World Bank, Entering the 21st Century, World Development Report 1999/2000
Bank Indonesia, Statistik Ekonomi Keuangan Indonesia; Indonesian Financial Statistics, 1983-2002
Agenor, Pierre-Richard, dan Peter J. Montiel, Development Macroeconomics, Princeton University Press, Princeton, New Jersey, 1996.
Aghevli, Bijan B., dan Mohsin S. Khan, “Government Deficits and the Inflationary Process in Developing Countries”, IMF Staff Paper, Vol.25, No.3, September 1978: 383-416.
Adji, Arti, Is Public Debt Neutral? Evidence For Indonesia, Journal Ekonomi dan Bisnis Indonesia(JEBI), September 1995, 21-32.
Barro, Robert J, “The Ricardian Approach to Budget Deficits”, Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol.3, No.2, Spring 1989, 37-54.
Barro, Robert J., “Are Government Bonds Net Wealth?”, Journal of Political Economics, No. 82 November/December 1974, 1095-1117.
Begg, David K.H., “The Rational Expectations Revolution in Macroeconomics, Theories and Evidence”, John Hopkins University Press, Baltimore, Maryland, 1985.
Bernheim, B.Douglas, “A Neoclassical Perspective on Budget Deficits”, Journal of Economics Perspectives, Vol. 3, No. 2, Spring 1989, 55-72.
Binger, Brian R. and Elizabeth Hoffman, Microeconomics with Calculus, Scott, Foresman and Company, United of America, 1988.
Blejer, Mario, I., and Adrienne Cheasty, “The Measurement of Fiscal Deficits: Analytical and Methodological Issues”, Journal of Economic Literature (JEL), Vol. XXIX, December 1991, 1644-1678.
Boediono, Teori Moneter; Seri Sinopsis Pengantar Ilmu Ekonomi No.5, BPFE, Universitas Gadjahmada, Yogyakarta, 1983.
Boskin, J Michael, “What Do We Know About Consumption and Saving, and What are The Implications For Fiscal Policy?”, American Economic Review and Proceedings, Vol.78, No. 2, 1978, 401-407.
Brown, T.M., Specification and Uses of Econometric Models, New York: Macmillan, 1970.
Bryant, John, “ A Simple Rational-Expectations Keynes-Type Model”, in Gregory Mankiw dan David Romer, eds, New Keynesian Economics: Coordination Failures and Real Rigidities, Vol.2, N., The MIT Press, Cambridge, London, 1995.
Cagan, Phillip, “The Monetary Dynamics of Hyperinflation.” In Studies in the Quantity Theory of Money, ed. By Milton Friedman, University of Chicago Press, 1956. Chacholiades, Miltiades, International Economics, McGraw-Hill, New York, 1990.
Chiang, Alpha, C., Fundamental Methods of Mathematical Economics, 3rd Edition, McGraw-Hill Book Company, New York, 1984.
Cooper, Russel and Andrew John, “Coordinating Coordination Failures in Keynesian Models, in New Keynesian Economics: Coordination Failures and Real Rigidities, Vol.2, N. Gregory Mankiw dan David Romer, eds, The MIT Press, Cambridge, London, 1995.
Davidson, J.D., Hendry, F. Srba and S. Yeo, “Econometric Modelling of the Aggregate Time-Series Relationship between Consumers’ Expenditure and Income in the United Kingdom”, Economic Journal, vol. 88, 1978, 661-692.
De Grouwe, Paul, Macroeconomic Theory for The Open Economy, Gower Publishing Company Limited, Hampshire, England, 1983.
De Haan, Jacob, dan Jan Egbert Storm, “ Do Financial Markets and the Maastricht Treaty Discipline Governments? New Evidence”, Applied Financial Economics (APF), ISSN 0960-3107, Vol 10 iss 2 April 2000, 221.
Deaton, A., “Involuntary Saving Through Unanticipated Inflation”, American Economic Review, vol. 67, no. 5, 1977, 900-910.
Dornbusch, Rudiger, Stanley Fischer, Gordon R.Sparks, Macroeconomics, 3rd edd., McGraw-Hill Ryerson Limited, Toronto, 1989.
Dutton, Dean S., “A Model of Self Generating Inflation: The Argentine Case”, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Vol.. 3, Mei 1971, 245-262.
Egwalkhide, Festus, O., “Effect of Budget Deficits on The current Account Balance in Nigeria: A Simulation Exercise”, The African Economic Research Consortion, The Regal Press Kenya, 1997.
Eisner, Robert, “Budget Deficit: Rhetoric and Reality”, Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol. 3, No. 2, Spring 1989, 73-93.
Engle, Robert F. and C.W.J. Granger, “Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing”, Econometrica, Vol.55, No.2, March, 1987, 251-76.
Flavin, M., The Adjustment of Consumption to Changing Expectations about Future Income, Journal of Political Economic, No. 89, 1981, 974-1009.
Friedman, M. and M.S. Khan, A Theory of the Consumption Function, Princeton: Princeton University Press. 1957.
Galardo, J Lopez, “Budget Deficit and Full Employment”, Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Summer 2000, Vol. 22, No. 4, 549-563.
Ghiglino, Christian dan Karl Shell, “The Economic Effects of Restrictions on Government Budget Deficits” Journal of Economic Theory (JET), ISSN 0022-0531, Vol. 94, Iss:1, Sept 2000, 106.
Goweke, Laszlo; “ Labour Taxation, Efficiency Wages and The Long Run”, Bulletin of Economic Research (BOE),ISSN 0307-3378, Vol 52 Iss;4 Oct 2000, 241.
Gramlich, Edward, M., “Budget Deficits and National Saving: Are Politicians Exogenous?”, Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol.3, No.2, Spring 1989, 23-35.
Grossman, Herschel, I., “Rational Expectations, Business Cycles, and Government Behavior”, in Stanley Fischer, eds, Rational Expectations and Economic Policy, The University of Chicago Press, Chicago, 1980, 5-22.
Gujarati, Domodar, N., Basic Econometrics, 3rd edd., McGraw-Hill International Editions, 1995.
Hall, S.G., S.G.B. Henry, Macroeconomic Modelling, Bank of England, London, UK, 1988.
Hayashi, Fumio, “Tests for Liquidity Constraints: a Critical Survey and some New Observation”, in Bewley, Truman F, ed., Advances in Econometrics, Fifth World Congress, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1987.
Holden, K., D.A.Peel, dan J.L.Thompsons, Expectations: Theory and Evidence, St.Matin’s Press, New York, 1985
Howard, Anton, and Chris Rorres, “Elementary Linear Algebra, Applications Version”,8th edd, John Wiley and Sons, Inc., New York, 2000. IBII, Proyeksi Ekonomi Indonesia Tahun 2000; Berdasarkan Perhitungan Macromodel,Lembaga Penelitian Ekonomi Indonesia-IBII, Jakarta, 2000.
Insukindro, “Pembentukan Model Dalam Penelitian Empirik Dengan Pendekatan Koreksi Kesalahan”, Journal Ekonomi dan Bisnis Indonesia (JEBI),Vol. 14 No.1, 1999, 1-8.
Insukindro, Ekonomi Uang dan Bank : Teori dan Pengalaman di Indonesia, BPFE, Jogjakarta, 1993
Insukindro, “Regresi Linier Lancung dalam Analisis Ekonomi: Suatu Tinjauan dengan Satu Studi Kasus di Indonesia”, Journal Ekonomi dan Bisnis Indonesia, 5, 1991, 75-88.
Jehle, Geoffrey, A., Advanced Microeconomic Theory, Prentice-Hall International Inc., Englewood Cliffs, New York, 1991.
Khan, Mohsin, S., “The Variability of Expectation in Hyperinflations” Journal of Political Economy, Vol.85, Agustus 1977, 817-827.
Kotlikoff, Laurence J., “Intergenerational Transfers and Savings”, Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol. 2, Spring 1988, 41-58.
Lucas, R.E., Jr. “Econometric Policy Evaluation: A Critique”, in K. Brunner and A.
Meltzer (eds), The Phillips Curve and Labor Markets, Amsterdam: North Holland, CarnegieRochester Series on Public Policy, 1976.
Mankiw, Gregory N., Macroeconomics, 3rd edition, Worth Publishers, New York, 1992.
Mansur, Ahsan H, “Effect of a Budget Deficit on the Current Account Balance: The Case of the Philippines”, in Blejer, M.I. and K.Chu eds, Fiscal Policy Stabilization and Growth in Developing Countries, Washington , D.C. : International Monetery Fund, 1989.
Maryatmo, Rogatianus, “The Role of Oil in Indonesian Economy: A Case of Causality Test”, Modus, Edisi 06, 1994, 37-44.
McCafferty, Stephen, Macroeconomic Theory, Harper & Row Publishers, New York, 1990.
Pindyck, Robert S., Daniel L. Rubinfeld, Econometric Models and Economic Forecasting, 4rd Edition., McGraw-Hill, New York, 1998
Price, Simon, and Insukindro, “The Demand for Indonesian Narrow Money: Long-run Equilibrium, Error Correction and Forward-Looking Behaviour”, The Journal of International
Trade & Economic Development3 (2) July 1994, 147-163.
Repse, Einors, “Latvia: Focus on Country Development”, Finance & Development (FID), ISSN 0015-1947, Vol. 37 Iss:3, September 2000, 17.
Romer, David, Advanced Macroeconomics, International Edition, 2nd edd., McGrawHill Higher Education, Singapore, 2001.
Saleh, Samsubar, “Pengaruh Kebijakan Defisit Anggaran Pemerintah Terhadap Perekonomian Indonesia”, Disertasi S3, Universitas Gajah Mada Jogjakarta, tidak dipublikasikan, 2002.
Sargent, Thomas J., and Neil Wallace, “Rational Expectation and the Dynamics of Hyperinflation”, International Economic Review, Vol 14, June 1973, 328-350.
Sargent, Thomas, J., Macroeconomics Theory, 2nd Edition., Academic Press, Inc., New York, 1987.
Seater, John J., “Ricardian Equivalence”, Journal of Economic Literature (JEL), Vol XXXI, March, 1993, 142-190.
Snowdown, B., and Vane H.R., A Modern Guide to Macroeconomics; An Introduction to Competing Schools of Thought, Edward Elgar Publishing Limited, Gower House, United Kingdom, 1995.
Thomas, R.L., Modern Econometrics; an Introduction, 1st Edition., Addison Wesley Longman, 1997.
Wiles, Mark, H., “Harapan Rasional Sebagai Kontrarevolusi”, dalam buku Daniel Bell dan Irving Kristol (editor), Krisis Teori Ekonomi, LP3ES, Jakarta, 1987.
Woo, W.T., Glassburner B., and Nasution A., Macroenomomic Policies, Crisis, and Long-Term Growth in Indonesia 1965-90, The World Bank, Washington, DC, 1994.
Woodford, Michael, “Revolution and Evolution in Twentieth-Century Macroeconomics”, Paper Prepared for the Conference on “Frontiers of The Mind in the Twenty-First Century” Library of Congress, Washington, June 14-18, 1999.
World Bank, Entering the 21st Century, World Development Report 1999/2000
Bank Indonesia, Statistik Ekonomi Keuangan Indonesia; Indonesian Financial Statistics, 1983-2002
Published
2005-05-20
How to Cite
Maryatmo, R. (2005). DAMPAK MONETER KEBIJAKAN DEFISIT ANGGARAN PEMERINTAH DAN PERANAN ASA NALAR DALAM SIMULASI MODEL MAKRO-EKONOMI INDONESIA (1983:1-2002:4). Buletin Ekonomi Moneter Dan Perbankan, 7(2), 297 -. https://doi.org/10.21098/bemp.v7i2.112
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Buletin Ekonomi Moneter dan Perbankan / Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.